Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
all right so ben pictures calls last night out what happened
well i approve of what happened there without having to gain record bring me
the controversy that followed the missouri or ten no one of the cold
but the debate reflect nitin
maybe the most thrilling nfl regular season game
certainly the last few years and probably one of the best evidence very
five thirty four this year
or set up for the last ten years really the two best teams in the a_f_c_ as turn
of the three dash conciliatory bob and along with the
and all these pit no and that's a little big horn or the patron for about six
point there was just over two minutes to play they had a port down into your to
go at their own twenty-eight yard line about
one-half yards to go to a play that we are gone
underground at a hundred thalidomide without intent doubt there are ten
thousand
teams part in that situation
uh... the patriot with the head coach bilbao check they went for it
they may have gotten it it was a very close play of the they did not get it on
the spot and they are called to go over and wrote going on at the art of scored
the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds to play
that's what happened
thrilling game thrilling decision
wireless second-guessing their bill bella checks sort of his uh... gambling
bolu style haha came back to bite him
but he made a horrible mistake that the content
uh... that contentious is one hundred percent
wrong up wait a minute we got casa received
but
of did what ben everything so we've got and you're on your own twenty nine with
you
nevertheless questionnaire why do you think that he did the right when i get
to the map in a moment but let me tell you why you don't even need to go to the
map understand the from a football point of view
first of all poor limited to played that have committed the blood
i like everybody else would a font
and i'm sure go bala check with pat
what you're going to get but the average puntodat annette about forty art
mailer but what are your net forty yards on the part
let me just a good peyton manning the ball with his sixty nine yards to go
instead of twenty nine yards to go
with too much
at a time out
right to get peyton manning two minutes
i had a timeout and they've just scored and it's the end of the game of the
patriot defense is going to try it
everyone on the planet novato
i don't know pygmalion escort touchdown and we the copes with extent but he
grumbled that ball down the field the pager to give up the middle of the field
and the culture to complete a couple passes and when there's a minute to play
they're going to be with a twenty nine-year-old line anyway
i guarantee it
that just seems like you to all of those watched a football game to know that's
going to happen
and i just think we don't even think you need to go to the map
but thankfully
uh... someone did go to the math god bless them and that's uh... i want to
put their money from the espy and facts and information
by doing at these three sdn boston and what here what has been produced thereby
good old our attorney at that
the win probability
of going forward in that situation
when will it against punching in that situation
by a very narrow margin i will concede
favors going korte you are more likely to win the game
if you go for it
basically
if u
going forward and get the first down
and the numbers by the way seemed skew the wrong way even despite that if you
go four to get the first down the win probability it says it ninety two
percent
i don't believe that i think it's a hundred percent
you know you're going to take a course would have one timeout you're part of
the ball back to the colts with about
left in thirty seconds to play
they're not going to touch down eight out of a hundred times in that situation
so
that number should be higher but let's take the ninety two percent at the
numbers get
farm
you'll win probability
if u
try to go forward and fail
if still sixty six percent
before the group still have a difficult thing they still have to go thirty yards
in a month
score touchdowns
they have plenty of time but they still have to score touchdowns wheels going to
show is typical of the n_f_l_
if u
but if you put the ball to get the ball the culture would probably about this we
hire because they'll have a mm greater field to go
u_n_ probability of seventy nine percent
factor that altogether
considering all those options
the best scenario is going forth you win probability is like point eight oh five
vs point seven nine l very close
buckling flip you p i mean there's no point let the guys who comes out to
lightweight the better place to go for it
takes into account the fact that only fifty five point seven percent of fourth
and tuesday converted in the n_f_l_
i think they look at it for them to think they should be looking at those
into also
the patriots obviously
we only have to know about football understand you-know-what
the lubavitch might be for the five point seven
tom brady's average on thirty two is going to be higher
so but that matt were using fifty live point seven percent for the conversion
rate i think that goes significantly up with the patriots which would only
increased the the uh...
the uh... would only raven numbers and make it even more clear that you should
go for
but everybody in the n_f_l_ just want to talk about like
i don't know toughness that was a lot of talk from former players terry bruce to
your rodney harrison who were great players there's no reason to believe you
guys know anything about max or anything about anything except football
the rehabilitators one dot
dot and i don't think they are and i don't think we've got over their leader
i mean he's a good do you get the congress actually pretty good
broadcaster such an interesting thing but
the instant reaction to this was a terrible decision one of the reasons
given is because you don't
yeah i thought you should have taken you detect
i mean idon't art on understand that don't get matters i where they're going
to play less hard because they're said the coach didn't show paid from them
super eight year old boy who have grown men playing professional football
and i would argue that five going forth
you show supreme confidence in your office
while i was pumping gliding pumping thing we ought to be confident in our
quarterback
were pumping we have no fagan
tom brady and laughed out of line
nuns or in a punt the ball away
you know that laughing up so it'll be brought a lot and i think is i'd be
disciplined confident in your defense to go forth your show incompetent you
offered to go get it
usually your defense ever don't get it
the pressures on you guys you have got much shorter feel
i think it's clear i don't even think of the were the debate
i think it's it's obviously overwhelming that you should go for it
and people understand probabilities need to get around to the fact that you know
what sometimes
neither work
sometimes we won't work we're talking about probabilities in increase your
chances of winning
bygone fork you know uh... existing site one if it had to work
i know what the commentators would be sent to the bruna zero
brilliant confident you know aggressive isn't doesn't go through a kickass is in
the election right front he does it make it these adult he's an idiot it has no
idea about football as a and that bothers me proceeding with the prepare
all of america it is what's wrong with television it at the fact that we
practice judge
that we can't look at the fact
sort of we can't step back and realizing that it didn't work out they still do
the right thing
we have this we have to have an opinion as to be a strong opinion has to be a
tough opinion
obviously didn't work it was different
so we hate
and you criticize it
and the it down breakdown numbers and understand it i don't like bill bella
check eleven twenty failed
very hard for me not to approve of what he did last night in in my report
yes along those lines lullaby six i agree with you and i agreed with that
positions are beginning to be synagogues or denial of
progressivity is but
e on that note
you gotta give bill check a tremendous amount of credit because most people
wouldn't do it they thought was the right thing to do
because they'd be afraid of getting fired or ridicule
ordained eleven last night
is that the right word accredited
let's take the that he's inland basically as he is today
and it would be afraid they would be afraid
annabella sec
love elena
is not afraid and part of that is because even bigger picture
has bred the competent i mean i'm not that you know what at the port
but honestly try to get fired him edwin gene you can't make that call he seemed
like a clown
but the fact is everybody should make the call it goes back to appoint that i
believe needs to be made again and again gregg easterbrook from e_s_p_n_
d_s_p_ and dot com writes about that all the time the tuesday morning cornerback
don't pump
don't contact don't give them the ball in football
we all the bitten by every analyst in the country turned over here to return
over of punk through the turnover you have the ball you're given it to the
other thing
now i'm not a idiot yet deborah potter and sometimes you have to put but you
should always have to be talked in the product
put the relevant to your own fifteen buck
i gotta i'm not an idiot
but the fact of the matter is we put too much we were when we get the ball the
other team
dot basically the other team scores only when they have the ball use kore when
you have the ball why would you give it up unless you don't have to we who
yes pellets equity for here and they lost right and so he got burned up
but with that attitude
he wins more games the moves a friend of mine made this point a very smart guy
amak guy who called me right afterwards because we know how i feel about pumping
anne said here your your whole pet peeve it's been pushed back five years
and then he called back and to be in a with interesting is that
it'll might at some point during this week a trooper bill bell check i'm glad
it didn't work
it's going to step back punting but not printing five years
and he's going to be the only one who understand that you shouldn't punt annie
will maintain that competitive advantage i think that aggressiveness serves them
well
and not just
gently but it was some well this year it will serve well on the playoffs
in an r_t_c_ wins rather loses from this
uh... and of course whatever we do plenty stories i'm reminded that high
school team that realize hey you know what
buddies *** though they didn't have the same upon except of mercy one time
the whole season
kw watched all their problems and you pour down and broke her repeatedly huge
huge huge advantage it could be used
in average you know that the other your partnership items fifteen games that
went with that
alright does roads are not talking about you but i think of this error all right
we appreciate your excellent now sir right
if you like this little clipper john lovell
hope it loops twenty four seven on the other perspective on going today
white now