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On this week’s show : Tesla’s VP of Investor Relations Sets an analyst straight on Model
3 battery costs and specifications, Volvo launches a new Drive Me trial in central London,
and Nissan commits to making lower-priced electric cars alongside longer-range ones.
These stories and more, coming up next, on TEN.
Enjoying today’s show on Youtube and want to read the stories we’re referring to today?
Just head to our website at Transport Evolved dot com forward slash TEN, where you’ll
find today’s show notes -- as well as links to the latest future car news, buying guides,
tech primers, and car reviews.
It’s Friday, April 29 twenty sixteen, I’m Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield, and we’re here
thanks to the wonderful donations of our Patreon patrons. So far, we’re raising close to
one thousand dollars per month, which not only helps us keep the site up and running
but also ensures there’s not a single ad on our site or in our YouTube stream. And
that’s the way we like it.
We start today’s show with news on the highly-anticipated, super-hyped Tesla Model 3, namely information
pertaining to its battery pack and vehicle construction. What’s more, this morsel of
information doesn’t come from the usual source -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk -- but Tesla’s
Vice President of Investor Relations, Jeff Evanson.
As we explained mid-week, Evanson called in to the Q&A session following a UBS analysts
call with former GM EV expert jon Bereisa and industry analyst Colin Langan, who had
predicted that Tesla’s mass-market $35,000 sedan wouldn’t make the California automaker
a profit due to high battery and construction costs.
The analysis was based on conjecture and best-guesses for Model 3 technical specifications, and
thus, said Evanson, didn’t correctly represent true factory variable cost (or FVC for short).
Setting the record straight, Evanson said that Tesla’s entry level Model 3 would come
with a battery pack less than 60 kilowatt-hours in size and will make use of aluminium plus
other materials for its construction. These two facts should reduce total build costs
for the car, which has already secured more than 400,000 pre-reservations deposits and
won’t even enter production until late next year.
Will it turn a profit? Tesla thinks so, but it seems analysts have yet to be convinced.
What they might be convinced of however, is the continuing upward tick in range of Tesla’s
high-end luxury Model S electric sedan, thanks to the news this week that the U.S. EPA has
now approved range estimates for the recently-refreshed Tesla Model S 90D.
As detailed on Monday, the new range estimate for the dual-motor, 90 kilowatt-hour Model
S -- but not the high-end performance variant -- sits at 294 miles on the combined EPA test
cycle. On the highway test cycle however, that figure is actually 303 miles, making
the current Model S 90D the first mass-produced electric car to top the 300-mile barrier.
Of course, there are some caveats here. That 303-EPA rating comes with some very specific
circumstances, namely that you drive at a fairly constant speed on the highway with
few hills, sudden acceleration or bad weather. Given modern EPA tests are far more accurate
at predicting real-world range than they used to be however, we think those with a light
right foot may be able to push that range far higher in perfect conditions, while those
with a lead foot should expect to get far less per charge.
Still, if you’re planning to make a long-distance trip in a Model S on a regular basis, it pays
to know that the Model S 90D is the one you should buy.
As that last story categorically proves, no other electric automaker is currently coming
anywhere close to the range offered by a Tesla electric car, but late last week Japanese
automaker Nissan launched a very cheeky attack on the amount of time customers will likely
have to wait to get their hands on a Tesla Model 3.
In an ad that appeared in various print publications as well as online, Nissan cheekily asked “why
wait when you can drive an all-electric LEAF now?,” highlighting its $4,000 cash back
deal on its popular electric hatchback and suggesting that those who paid a $1,000 refundable
deposit in order to stand in line to eventually order a Tesla Model 3 should rethink their
priorities.
As various sites note, Nissan’s ad certainly makes a valid point: buying a Nissan LEAF
electric car -- or indeed any electric car -- will get you off fossil fuels today. And
unless you’re one of the very lucky few to be at the head of the Model 3 queue, it’ll
probably put you in an electric car two years before your Model 3 rolls off the production
line.
But here’s the thing. The current-generation LEAF -- however good -- can’t compete with
the Model 3 in terms of claimed range. Nor can it compete that competitively with price.
And while we do think people should make the switch to electric sooner rather than later,
we can’t help but think Nissan’s ad is a bit of an own goal right now and perhaps
should have been saved for the next-generation Nissan LEAF -- which we think will compete
far more effectively against Model 3 based on the various rumors we’ve heard thus far.
And we sincerely mean that. In a few years, we’re hopeful that we’ll see 200 plus
mile, similarly-priced electric cars from Tesla, Nissan, GM, Hyundai and others. And
what a wonderful world we’ll be living in, because there’s nothing like some healthy
competition to drive innovation. I can’t wait.
We’re off to Germany now, where the German Federal Government has finally approved its
first-ever electric car incentive program this week. Worth an estimated 1.2 billion
euro (1.4 billion dollars) the plug-in car incentive program will help an estimated 400,000
Germans receive a €4,000 discount off the sticker price of a new electric car, or €3,000
off the sticker price of a plug-in hybrid car.
But what makes this program special isn’t the sixty-thousand euro cut-off price after
which incentives won’t be available -- meaning luxury electric cars like the Tesla Model
S, Model X and high-end plug-in hybrids like the BMW i8 or Mercedes-Benz S Class Plug-in
hybrid won’t be eligible for a discount. It’s the fact that rather than fund the
scheme on its own, the German government is asking the auto industry to pay half of the
incentive costs itself.
Why? Well, historically, Germany has argued that incentives only benefit the automakers,
because automakers put up their sticker prices in order to make extra money. But by asking
automakers to pony up half of the discounts offered, it ensures that the incentive program
encourages automakers to continually drive down the cost of plug-in cars and ensures
its citizens can benefit too.
There’s also a new investment in charging points as well as more commitment from the
German government to buy plug-in cars for fleet use, so here’s to a cleaner, more
electrified nation in the near future.
Staying in Europe, our next story focuses on the UK, where Swedish automaker Volvo announced
this week that London will be home to the latest chapter in its Drive Me autonomous
vehicle project.
As anyone who has driven in London will tell you -- and I actually learned to drive in
London -- piloting an automobile in the UK’s capital is a brutal assault on the senses.
Aside from all those tiny side streets, congested streets and lemming-like tourists, there are
those big double-decker busses, pushy taxi drivers and death-wish motorcycle couriers.
Which is probably why London makes the perfect place for Volvo to prove its autonomous drive
technology has what it takes to be used by everyday people in everyday situations without
any accidents, injuries or mishaps.
Selecting real families for the trial -- which will expand in 2018 after a soft-start in
2017 -- Volvo will send up to 100 XC90 plug-in hybrids fitted with Volvo’s autonomous drive
technology out onto the roads to see how the technology fares. And unlike other pilot projects,
this one involves everyday drivers, not specially-trained engineers.
We’ll be keeping our eyes on this one, so we’ll let you know how the project progresses
as time passes.
Switching gears now, our next story is about the latest chapter in the ongoing Volkswagen
dieslegate scandal. And while some viewers are getting annoyed with our covering this
story in our show, we think it’s important because deiselgate is the antithesis of our
editorial remit to bring you news about cleaner, greener safer and smarter transportation.
Anyway, this week we learned that Volkswagen CEO Matthias Müller personally telephoned
the President of the United States of America, firstly to apologize for the dieselgate scandal
and secondly to try and… essentially beg for mercy.
The reason? The ever-increasing bill that Volkswagen is facing as a consequence of the
dieselgate scandal which could see Volkswagen sell off some of its assets in order to afford
the billions of dollars of fines it now faces.
Noting that he hoped Volkswagen could continue to provide employment to all of its U.S. staff
post dieselgate, Müller doesn’t appear to have exactly asked for time off for good
behavior. But he certainly took time to note what a negative impact the loss of jobs would
have on the U.S. economy should Volkswagen’s fines be impossible to pay.
It’s a little like the well-known fact that a guilty plea usually gets you a more lenient
sentence in prison -- but in this particular case we suspect Müller’s presidential telephone
call will be too little, too late. Essentially, if you did the crime, you have to do the time.
I just hope the U.S. government is ready to step in to help any VW workers displaced by
cutbacks as a consequence because for most employees, they haven’t done a single thing
wrong. Watch this space.
Volkswagen may be worrying about making ends meet in order to pay all those fines for cheating
in emissions tests -- something it really does deserve -- but elsewhere in the automotive
industry, we’ve been discussing affordability of a different sort this week, namely how
affordable electric cars really are.
That’s because while cars like the Nissan LEAF, Tesla Model S and upcoming Tesla Model
3 and Chevrolet Bolt are great ways to dump the pump for good, they’re still not really
affordable for everyone. Even at $35,000 before incentives, the Tesla Model 3 will be way
too expensive for many families.
Which is why Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn reaffirmed Nissan’s goal of producing more
affordable electric cars this week, initially for the Chinese market.
In an interview with Bloomberg this week, Ghosn reiterated the need for Renault-Nissan
to develop both high-spec, long-range electric cars like the next-generation Nissan LEAF
as well as lower-spec, small-range cars for use by those who just couldn’t afford a
more expensive model. And while I’ve been personally talking to many readers this week
who religiously say that EVs need at least 200 miles to be useful, I’ve got to agree
with Ghosn: For many low-income families, an affordable 100-mile electric car would
not only revolutionise their daily lives but also save them a lot of money too.
The challenge? Producing an electric car that can compete on price with entry-level vehicles
like the Nissan Versa or Chevy Spark with enough power to keep up with traffic while
retaining a real-world 100 miles of range. I’m hopeful someone will figure it out,
because all these longe-range $30k cars have to drop the price of batteries for lesser-specced
models too.
Someone who doesn’t have to worry about the price of cars is fictional spy James Bond,
if only because Her Majesty is the one fitting the bill for his high-tech, tricked out rides.
Traditionally -- with the exception of that BMW 7-series that could be driven remotely
-- James Bond has favoured gas-guzzling Aston Martin sports cars, but this week we learned
that Aston Martin may be giving James Bond a new electric car to play with.
We’re gleaming this from a new interview aired at the end of last week with Andy Palmer,
boss of Aston Martin and former Nissan executive known for his love of electric cars. Telling
CNBC this week that electric cars were almost as inevitable as death and tax, Palmer said
that the phenomenal acceleration, instant torque and zero lag would be perfect for the
secret-service agent on his next big adventure.
While he hinted that Bond may find himself transitioning to full electric via a plug-in
hybrid, Palmer seemed convinced that Aston Martin would be giving 007 a fully-plug-in
car to play with at some point in the future. I can’t wait.
And finally,
If we’re talking about high-tech gadgets, there’s perhaps no car quite so worthy of
the title than a Tesla Model S or Model X, thanks in part to the autopilot hardware included
as standard in each and every example since October 2014.
Well, this week, a video surfaced showing the wonderful union of Amazon Echo and the
Tesla Autopilot API -- with a little matchmaking from a special third-party library called
Tesla Golang -- which makes it possible for you to tell your Amazon Echo to pull your
Tesla out of the garage and meet you by the door.
Ok, so this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a voice-activated Tesla video, but this
one is super cool and unlike Apple’s Siri implementation, seems a whole lot more personable.
I want. I really do.
Sadly, I can’t afford a Tesla Model S or even a Model 3 right now, but I do at least
get to play with my remote-controlled Roomba. That’s actually more within my price range
and is super handy because I don’t have to vacuum the house any more.
As you might have guessed, that’s your lot for this week -- but I’ll be back next week
at the usual time with another episode of TEN. In the meantime you can find all the
news that’s fit to print at our website at transport evolved dot com, catch up with
us on twitter at transport Evolve, or check out our latest shows on our usual YouTube
channel.
And if you liked what you saw today, please consider keeping us independent and impartial
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As always, there’s a lot we haven’t managed to fit into today’s show, including Hyundai’s
plans to bring a 200-mile SUV to market for 2018, a Hotel that will lend you a Tesla Model
S for your stay, Samsung SDI pulls out of the fuel cell business, and how some Tesla
Fans aren’t helping Tesla deal with its Model X quality control issues.
So when we’re done, be sure to head to our site to read them all. Thanks for watching,
I’m Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield, have a great weekend, and until next time, keep evolving!