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You are an Americanologist and know the US well.
Serious threats are coming today from various sides.
Do you think the Americans really plan an attack on Iran?
Sergey Rogov, the head of the USA and Canada Institute under the RAS
They are discussing the problem in America.
Both Democrats and Republicans have supporters of either a military or a peaceful settlement of the situation.
Some say that Iran should be attacked before it’s too late,
i.e. before Iran creates long-range missiles and nuclear warheads.
Others say that the deterrent system would work against Iran too,
just like it worked against Stalin, the Soviet Union, China.
So why wouldn’t it work against Iran?
Doesn’t Iran understand that if it uses nuclear armaments it will be destroyed?
The supporters of war reply that the Iranians are “insane mullahs”
who want to die as soon as possible and join Allah.
I think that Obama’s administration doesn’t need this war at all,
especially in the context of the election campaign and the economic situation, which is still in crisis.
Oil prices would rise rapidly.
The Americans have just left Iraq, and a Shiah government is ruling there.
The US decided to leave Afghanistan, in this context,
to create a situation with unpredictable consequences is very dangerous.
However, there is a serious possibility that Israel will attack Iran.
Actually, an Iranian-Israeli war is taking place at the moment.
It is not a war between the armies of two countries.
Physicists and diplomats are often murdered.
Plus there is a cyber war.
This is a new phenomenon.
You remember the accident with centrifuges infected by a created virus.
An election year in the US is always beneficial for Israel,
as candidates try to attract the support of the Jewish community,
swear to love Israel and support it in all spheres.
Secondly, before late 2011 the US had been an occupying country in Iraq.
Thus, they controlled the air space of Iraq.
To launch a strike at Iran, Israeli aviation needs to fly across the territory of Iraq.
In this case the US would automatically be an accessory to launching the strike.
Should they shoot at Israeli airplanes?
Now the Americans have left Iraq, the air space of it is under the control of the Iraqi authorities,
who have no aviation or air defense system.
So I think a window is opening for launching a strike by Israel in spring-summer 2012.
Today I have read an article in The Washington Times,
which says that America is trying to persuade Israel not to do this.
Are such articles reliable? It is difficult to say.