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Conference on the situation in Arabic states
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Alexander Ignatenko, President of the Religion and Politics Institute, member of the Presidential Council for Cooperation with Religious Organizations, professor of Moscow State University
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To put it briefly, the last 20-40 years saw the rise of gerontocracy in Arabic States:
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those who are in power there now are, for the most part, elderly,
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and they've occupied their offices for some 20 years already.
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For example, President Mubarak has occupied the highest position in Egyptian government for 30 years - since October 1981
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(I will not mention other important positions of authority he held prior to that).
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Ben-Ali, now ex-president of Tunisia, held office for 20 years.
And this all would not be so bad if these regimes were not become as corrupt as they are.
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This corruption is not 'even' in all levels of power: the higher the position - the greater the level of corruption.
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These countries of Near East (some of them still retain these regimes) have longed for change for a long time.
Changes in politics, for the most part. Right now, two different groups of, so to say, "revolutionary rends" are forming within these countries.
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The first one - and the most important, in my opinion - is the contradictions within the political elite.
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Clans of elite are disrupting the course of natural development of these states while fighting each other over profitable positions in economy and in power.
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So, new, progressive groups of elite are intent on getting rid of these clans.
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Tunisia became a sort of test ground that shows what might happen after banishing old president and his clan along with him.
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And not only his clan: his wife's clan(Trabelsi) was also driven out.
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Now they all have to literally wonder around the world and, in addition to that,
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EU is considering handing over their property and bank accounts to the people of Tunisia.
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But that's not all: the second group of problems has also been growing over the years.
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This one touches upon the live of common citizens of these states.
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That is: striking inequality, the abyss between poverty and riches, youth unemployment, lack of means for dignified lifeů
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People don't have enough money to buy food.
Last December, one event triggered the explosion of this whole situation, the explosion used by the elite groups.
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I mean the abrupt growth of prices for agricultural products, gain, first of all.
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Government could manoeuvre, could prepare some stock, but the authorities were not competent enough.
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Imagine, if you will, a man of 82 years: his memory is not good enough,
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he thinks sort of inadequate in modern circumstance, and he does not really careů
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and this led to a violent outburst, a riot -social and national revolution, Arabic guerilla.
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And those elite groups who had already planned coup d'etat used these riots.
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This is a wide topic, and I can't fail to mention the factor of foreign influence, especially the US one.
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And all present efforts to settle the situation come from US itself or from their allies in liberal political forces of the country.
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To give an example of a failed 'color revolution' I would like to site Syria:
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attempts to raise a revolution were made their, but Syrian situation is completely different.
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Its rulers are not old; they are young, successful and progressive.
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There are a lot of factors that make Syria completely different from Egypt and Tunisia.
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