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>> UH, CAN YOU JUST COMMENT
BRIEFLY ON MOODY'S OUTLOOK
FOR GROWTH IN CHINA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS,
AND, ALSO, EUROPE
[ INDISTINCT ]?
>> Steve Cochrane: THE-THE
QUESTION WAS, WHAT IS THE, UH,
OUR-THE MOODY'S ANALYTICS
OUTLOOK FOR, UH, ASIA,
UH-UH, FOR CHINA
AND FOR, UH, EUROPE?
UH, YOU KNOW,
I DIDN'T TALK ABOUT THIS,
UH, YET, IT'S SO IMPORTANT.
PARTICULARLY, FOR THE COUNTY,
BECAUSE OF THE EXPO--
THE-THE-THE OPEN NATURE OF
THE ECONOMY, AND WHAT HAPPENS
IN ASIA AND EUROPE
DOES HAVE AN IMPACT HERE.
UH, THERE ARE RISKS, UH,
IN THE ASIAN ECONOMY
AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY,
THAT ARE, UH-UH, OUT THERE,
AND WE NEED TO BE WATCHING IT
VERY, VERY, UH, CLOSELY,
AND THE RISKS ARE, ACTUALLY,
QUITE THE OPPOSITE.
IN CHINA, THE RISK IS,
IN TERMS OF OVERHEATING,
THAT THE ECON-THAT THERE
WAS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF FISCAL STIMULUS
AND MONETARY STIMULUS
IN THE CHINESE ECONOMY,
THAT ALLOWED CHINA
TO CONTINUE TO GROW.
SUPPORTED COMMODITY PRICES,
AS THEY'RE-THEY-THEY WERE--
THEIR VORACIOUS DEMAND
FOR GLOBAL COMMODITIES,
UH-UH, CONTINUED THROUGH
THE-THE-THE GLOBAL DOWNTURN,
AND CERTAINLY HELPED, UH,
KEEP THE-THE DOWNTURN
IN THIS ECONOMY FROM BEING
WORSE THAN IT-IT WAS.
UH, THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRICE TO PAY,
IN TERMS OF A NUMBER
OF BAD LOANS COMING DUE.
UH, PARTICULARLY, A NUMBER
OF BAD LOANS THAT WENT
RIGHT TO LOCAL GOVERNMENTS,
IN-IN CHINA.
THE OTHER RISK IS
THE-THE HOUSING MARKET THERE.
I THINK THERE TRULY IS
A HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE
IN CHINA, AND, UH,
HOW THAT GETS RESOLVED, UH,
WHETHER AS A HARD LANDING
OR A SOFT LANDING,
WILL HAVE A LOT TO DO
WITH HOW THE CHINESE ECONOMY,
UH, MOVES, GOING FORWARD.
UM, OUR FORECAST,
RIGHT NOW, IS THAT,
THE CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS
FROM ABOUT NINE TO TEN PERCENT
GDP GROWTH, TO ABOUT SEVEN
TO EIGHT PERCENT GDP GROWTH,
WHICH IS, UH-UH, IN A SENSE,
A SOFT LANDING
AND IS A-A SUSTAINABLE
RATE OF GROWTH, UH, IN CHINA.
IN EUROPE, OF COURSE,
IT'S THE OPPOSITE,
WITH THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS
AND THE RISK THAT, UH,
BOTH, UH, THAT-THAT, UH,
BANKS AND, UH-UH,
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES,
OF COURSE, FACE, IN TERMS OF,
UH, THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION.
UH, I'M, UH, BECOME A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC OVER THE LAST
JUST COUPLE OF DAYS,
GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE GERMANS AND THE FRENCH
SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY WILLING
TO, UH-UH, SUPPORT THE GREEKS,
IN TERMS OF, UH, PROVIDING THEM
SOME BRIDGE LOANS THAT OUGHTA
GET THEM THROUGH 2013.
TWENTY-THIRTEEN IS A KEY YEAR,
FOR TWO REASONS.
ONE IS THAT, THERE WILL BE
A PERMANENT-PERMANENT
EUROPEAN STABILIZATION FUND,
UH, PUT TOGETHER BY THE, UH,
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK,
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE IN 2013
FOR, UH, COMPANIES THAT FACE
SOVEREIGN DEBT, UH, ISSUES.
AND, ALSO, BY 2013,
THE BROADER BANKING SYSTEM
IN EUROPE OUGHT TO BE
MUCH MORE HEALTHY.
THE BANKING SYSTEM IN EUROPE
IS BEHIND THE U.S. SYSTEM,
IN TERMS OF RE-CAPITALIZING
AND RESTRUCTURING.
UH, THE EUROPEANS PUT,
UH-UH, THEIR BANKS THROUGH
A SERIES OF TRE-STRESS TESTS,
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS,
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE DEGREE
OF, UH, OF, UH-UH-UH--
THE PARAMETERS WERE NOT
TIGHT ENOUGH IN EUROPE.
AFTER-AFTER ONE ROUND OF
STRESS TEST-STRESS TESTING,
IT WASN'T A MONTH LATER
THAT SEVERAL IRISH BANKS,
UH, RAN INTO DEEP TROUBLE.
UH, THERE WILL BE-THERE'S
A NEW ROUND OF STRESS TESTING
GOING ON, RIGHT NOW,
WITH THE EUROPEAN BANKS,
AND THE RESULTS ARE DUE
IN JULY.
WE'LL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER IDEA
OF WHAT THE EUROPEAN BANKS
HAVE TO DO TO RE-CAPITALIZE
AND RESTRUCTURE, GOING FORWARD.
AND THEN, UH, BY 2013,
WE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT,
UH, BETTER.
BEN.
>> Ben Stone: THANK YOU, STEVE,
VERY MUCH.
REALLY APPRECIATE IT.
[ AUDIENCE APPLAUDING ]
>> Ben Stone: AND,
FOR ALL OF YOU, YOU'VE GOTTEN,
UH, STEVE'S FORECAST HERE.
IT ALSO WILL BE ON OUR WEBSITE,
AROUND NOON,
AND YOU CAN DOWNLOAD IT,
UH, FROM OUR SITE THERE.
ALSO, WE ARE LEARNING, UH,
THIS IPAD TECHNOLOGY.
WE DID GET A NUMBER OF
QUESTIONS ON THE IPAD.
WE'LL BE POSTING THOSE
ON OUR WEBSITE,
ALONG WITH ANSWERS FROM STEVE,
UH, IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NOW, WE'LL HAVE AN UPDATE FROM
THE INNOVATION ACTION COUNCIL.
THIS EFFORT HAS BEEN FOCUSED
ON HELPING UNDERSTAND
THE CHALLENGES WE FACE
OVER THE LONG-TERM,
AND HELPING DEVELOP APPROACHES
FOR THE SHORT-TERM, AS WELL.
THIS YEAR, THE FOCUS
FOR THE COUNCIL HAS BEEN
ON OUR KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS,
AND THE CHALLENGES
AND OPPORTUNITIES THEY FACE.
THE EFFORTS HAVE BEEN GUIDED BY
OSCAR CHAVEZ AND BILL CARSON,
WHO SERVED AS CO-CHAIRS
OF THE COUNCIL.
WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE MORGAN FAMILY FOUNDATION,
OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS,
A SERIES OF FOCUS GROUP
MEETINGS WERE HELD,
WITH FIVE INDUSTRY CLUSTERS.
A CROSS-SECTION OF PEOPLE
FROM EACH CLUSTER PARTICIPATED,
AND, UH, REALLY SPOKE UP
ABOUT THE NEEDS THEY SEE,
AND THE OPPORTUNITIES
TO GROW THEIR CLUSTER.
THE PROCESS WAS LEAD
BY DOUG HENTON,
OF COLLABORATIVE ECONOMICS.
YOU'LL GET AN OPPORTUNITY
TO HEAR ABOUT, UH,
THE PROCESS FROM DOUG,
AND THEN GET A BRIEF SUMMARY
OF EACH OF THE CLU-CLU-CLUSTER
FINDINGS, UH, FROM PEOPLE,
FROM THE CLUSTERS THEMSELVES.
FOLLOWING THESE PRESENTATIONS,
YOU'LL GET AN OPPORTUNITY
TO HELP BE IN A PROCESS
TO HELP DIVI-- UH-UH,
BUILD A VISION FOR OUR ECONOMY,
UH, SO WE CAN IMPROVE IT
OVER THE NE-OVER
THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
SO, LET'S BEGIN
WITH OSCAR CHAVEZ.
OSCAR IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
OF THE COMMUNITY ACTION
PARTNERSHIP.
OSCAR IS ALSO IN LEADERSHIP
IN A NUMBER OF ACTIVITIES.
CHAIRING THE FIRST FIVE, UH,
COMMISSION FOR SONOMA COUNTY.
UH, CO-CHAIR OF
THE HEALTH ACTION COUNCIL.
BOARD MEMBER OF
THE COMMUNITY FOUNDATION.
AND HE'S JUST BEEN IN HIS JOB
FOR THREE YEARS, AT THE
COMMUNITY ACTION PARTNERSHIP.
SO, OSCAR'S A BUSY GUY.
WHEN I INTRO-INTRODUCE OSCAR
TO BOOMERS, I LIKE TO SAY,
"HE'S KINDA LIKE BEING
"AROUND A YOUNG JFK."
UH, AND FOR MILLENNIALS,
I SAY, "HE'S A YOUNG OBAMA."
SO, OSCAR, PLEASE COME UP
AND, UH, TAKE IT AWAY.
[ AUDIENCE APPLAUDING ]
>> Oscar Chavez: WELL,
THANK YOU, BEN, AND, UH,
BEING CHAIR OF FIRST FIVE,
I REALLY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE, UH, EARLY CHILDHOOD
EDUCATION QUESTION.
AND IT WAS THE, UH, CHICAGO,
UH, ECONOMIST NOBEL LAUREATE,
UH, JAMES HECKMAN, WHO SAID,
"IF YOU WANNA
"IMPROVE THE ECONOMY,
"IF YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT
"WE HAVE A STRONG WORKFORCE,
"THEN THE BEST INVESTMENTS
"YOU CAN MAKE ARE IN
"EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION."
SO, THAT'S WHERE
WE NEED TO INVEST.
[ AUDIENCE APPLAUDING ]
SO, THANK YOU, BEN,
AND GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE.
I'M REALLY PLEASED TO SEE
THAT, UH, WE HAVE SUCH
A GREAT TURNOUT HERE TODAY,
AND SO MUCH INTEREST IN
IMPROVING OUR ECONOMY AND JOBS,
HERE IN SONOMA COUNTY.
I SERVE AS THE EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR FOR THE COMMUNITY
ACTION PARTNERSHIP,
WHICH IS CHARGED WITH HELPING
LOW INCOME FAMILIES
AND INDIVIDUALS ATTAIN SUCCESS,
ECONOMICALLY AND SOCIALLY.
QUITE OBVIOUSLY,
THE FIRST STEP TOWARDS
ECONOMIC SUCCESS IS A JOB,
AND I HAVE A STRONG COMMITMENT
TOWARDS DOING WHATEVER WE CAN
TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN
A HEALTHY ECONOMY
AND STABLE JOB BASE.
BECAUSE OF THIS COMMITMENT,
I HAVE SERVED ON
THE INNOVATION COUNCIL
FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS,
AND THIS YEAR, WAS ASKED
TO CO-CHAIR WITH BILL CARSON.
THE INNOVATION ACTION COUNCIL
IS CHARGED WITH TAKING
THE LONG VIEW OF OUR ECONOMY.
WE STARTED IN 2008,
BY COMMISSIONING A MAJOR STUDY
OF OUR ECONOMY,
AND OVER THE NEXT DECADE.
THE BIGGEST FINDING
FROM THAT STUDY
WAS A GREAT NEED
FOR RAISING HISPANIC
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT.
THE STUDY SPARKED
NEW EFFORTS FOR EDUCATION,
DESIGNED TO PRODUCE
A CORRESPONDING IMPROVEMENT
IN THE LOCAL JOB MARKET
AND THE COUNTY ECONOMIC CLIMATE.
THIS YEAR,
WE MOVED TO PHASE TWO.
UNDERTAKING A CLUSTER ANALYSIS,
WITH THE HELP OF
A NOTED EXPERT IN THIS AREA,
MR. DOUG HENTON,
OF COLLABORATIVE ECONOMICS.
WE FELT THAT,
IN ORDER TO DEVISE INITIATIVES,
TO CREATE JOBS
AND STRENGTHEN OUR CLUSTERS,
WE NEEDED TO GO TO THE PEOPLE
MOST DIRECTLY INVOLVED.
THE PEOPLE PUTTING THEIR OWN
MONEY, ENERGY, AND SKILLS
TO WORK, TO HELP MAKE THIS
A VITAL ECONOMY.
THE OWNERS AND MANAGERS
OF BUSINESSES ARE
ON THE FRONT LINE,
AND WE NEEDED TO
HEAR THEIR OPINIONS,
THEIR EXPERIENCES,
AND THEIR IDEAS,
TO GIVE US A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING FOR WHAT
IT WILL TAKE TO CREATE
MORE JOBS AND INCOME
IN SONOMA COUNTY.
OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS,
WE GATHERED OWNERS AND MANAGERS
FROM FIVE MAJOR CLUSTER AREAS,
TO SOUND OFF ON WHAT
THEIR OPPORTUNITIES ARE,
WHAT OBSTACLES THEY FACE,
WHAT OUTCOMES
THEY'D LIKE TO SEE,
AND HOW THEY COULD
REACH THESE OUTCOMES.
THEY MET IN A FOCUS GROUP
SETTING WITH DOUG HENTON,
AND HIS TEAM
AT COLLABORATIVE ECONOMICS.
TODAY, DOUG HENTON
WILL GIVE YOU A MORE--
WILL GIVE YOU MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT WHAT CLUSTERS ARE
AND WHY THEY ARE IMPORTANT.
THEN, YOU'LL HEAR A BRIEF
SUMMARY FROM SPOKESPEOPLE
FOR EACH OF THE CLUSTERS,
WHO-WHO WILL DISCUSS
WHAT THEY SEE AS
PROMISING OPPORTUNITIES
FOR JOB CREATION
AND INNOVATION.
MORE THAN 60 LEADERS
HAVE ALREADY AGREED TO
HELP CHAMPION THESE ACTIONS,
WORKING WITH COMMUNITY PARTNERS
TO IMPLEMENT THESE INITIATIVES.
AS YOU'LL SOO-SOON HEAR,
FOUR THEMES HAVE EMERGED FROM
THE INDIVIDUAL CLUSTER MEETINGS.
UH, THE FIRST THEME
WAS THE NEED TO ENHANCE
OUR BRANDING-- OUR PROMOTION
AND SENSE OF PLACE
FOR SONOMA COUNTY BUSINESSES.
THE SECOND THEME IS THE NEED
FOR A BETTER TRAINED WORKFORCE.
THE THIRD, THE NEED
FOR SIMPLIFICATION,
IN BOTH REGULATION
AND SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAMS.
AND, FINALLY,
THE NEED TO FURTHER
DEV-DEVELOP DIALOGUE EXCHANGE
AND COOPERATION
AMONGST THE CLUSTERS.
THESE FOUR CLUSTER THEMES
ARE JUST THE FIRST STEP.
BY NO MEANS DO
THESE CLUSTERS REPRESENT
ALL BUSINESSES IN OUR COUNTY,
BUT THEY REPRESENT
A SNAPSHOT OF THE PARTICIPANTS
AND TH-AND THEIR PERSPECTIVES.
BUT, WE ARE HERE TODAY
TO TALK ABOUT THE NEXT STEP.
WE WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU
WHERE WE ARE TODAY,
AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY,
BEFORE THIS MORNING IS OUT,
WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU.
SO, PLEASE STICK AROUND
FOR OUR INTERACTIVE
BRAINSTORMING SESSION,
TO HELP TURN YOUR IDEAS
INTO REALITY.
WE HOPE TO PARTNER
WITH OTHER GROUPS,
AND/OR LEVERAGE THEIR EFFORTS,
WHEREVER POSSIBLE.
SO, IF YOU SEE WAYS THAT
A GROUP YOU'RE A PART OF
COULD BE INVOLVED
AND HELP LEAD THE IDEA HERE,
PLEASE LET US KNOW.
IF EXISTING GROUPS
CAN HELP TAKE THE LEAD
ON SOME OF THESE INITIATIVES,
THAT WOULD BE GREAT.
SO, THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
THIS MORNING.
AND MY THANKS, AS WELL,
TO THE CLUSTER PARTICIPANTS,
WHO GAVE THEIR TIME
AND BEST IDEAS, TO ADVANCE
OUR ECONOMY AND JOBS,
HERE IN SONOMA COUNTY.
WE'LL BE HEARING, FIRST,
FROM DOUG HENTON,
WHO FACILITATED THE MEETINGS,
FOLLOWED BY REP--
BY REPRESENTATIVES
FROM EACH OF THE CLUSTERS.
WE'LL FINISH UP WITH
A RECAP OF THE FOUR KEY THEMES
THAT EMERGED FROM OUR FINDINGS.
SO, NOW, IT IS MY PLEASURE
TO INTRODUCE DOUG HENTON.
UH, DOUG HENTON HAS MORE THAN
THIRTY YEARS OF EXPERIENCE
IN ECONOMIC
AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT,
AT THE NATIONAL, REGIONAL,
STATE, AND LOCAL LEVELS.
HE IS NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED
FOR HIS WORK IN BRINGING
INDUSTRY, GOVERNMENT,
EDUCATION, RESEARCH,
AND COMMUNITY LEADERS TOGETHER
AROUND SPECIFIC
COLLABORATIVE PROJECTS,
TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC
COMPETITIVENESS.
NATIONALLY, DOUG IS
A CONSULTANT TO THE NATIONAL
GOVERNOR'S ASSOCIATION,
THE PEW CHARITABLE TRUST,
AND COORDINATOR OF
THE NATIONAL CLIMATE
PROSPERITY PROJECT.
IN CALIFORNIA,
DOUG IS A CONSULTANT
TO THE CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC
STRATEGY PANEL.
CALIFORNIA'S FIRST STATE
ECONOMIC STRATEGY PROCESS,
LINKED TO INDUSTRY
CLUSTERS AND REGIONS.
HE HELPED LAUNCH COLLABORATIVE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
IN SACRAMENTO, FRESNO,
AND SAN DIEGO.
PLEASE JOIN ME IN WELCOMING
MR. DOUG HENTON.
[ AUDIENCE APPLAUDING ]
>> Doug Henton: THANK YOU
VERY MUCH,
AND IT'S ALSO GOOD TO BE BACK.
I'VE HAD A CHANCE TO WORK HERE,
OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS,
AND I'VE WORKED WITH BEN,
AND I'VE WORKED WITH,
UM, STEVE, AND IT'S-IT'S
A VERY EXCITING TIME,
TO REALLY HAVE A CHANCE
TO SIT DOWN AND TALK ABOUT
WHERE WE GO NEXT.
BUT I WANNA REFLECT,
JUST BRIEFLY,
ON-ON WHERE WE'VE BEEN.
I WANNA COMPLIMENT THE, UH,
THE WORK HERE, UH, OF
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD
AND SONOMA COUNTY,
GOING BACK TO
THE ECONOMIC VITALITY PROJECT.
STEVE SORT OF REFERENCED THAT.
IN THE '90s, THERE WAS
AN EFFORT TO COME TOGETHER
AND REALLY THINK ABOUT
WHERE THE ECONOMY IS GOING,
AND BRING TOGETHER LEADERSHIP.
AND SOME THINGS
CAME OUT OF THAT--
SOME SPECIFIC ACTIONS.
ONE OF THEM WAS, BRINGING
THE TOURISM INDUSTRY TOGETHER,
IN A WAY IT NEVER HAS BEFORE.
THAT WAS A VERY IMPORTANT STEP.
THE OTHER ONE HAD TO DO
WITH WORKING WITH
SONOMA STATE UNIVERSITY,
IN DEVELOPING AN
ENGINEERING PROGRAM.
SO, THE IDEA OF THIS
IS TO BRING TOGETHER
KEY INDUSTRY LEADERS,
AND TO FIND OUT WHAT ARE
THE CRITICAL ACTIONS THAT
ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THE TIME.
THE OTHER THING
I WANNA COMPLIMENT IS THAT,
ONCE THE CONDITIONS CHANGED,
IN THE '90s, PARTICULARLY
AROUND SOME OF THE TOPICS
THAT STEVE POINTED OUT--
GLOBAL COMPETITION,
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS,
THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED
TO THE RESOURCE BASE
OF OUR ECONOMY.
THE INNOVATION COUNCIL
WAS CREATED BY
THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS,
TO REALLY LOOK AT
HOW TO DEVELOP A STRATEGY
THAT'S APPROPRIATE
FOR THE CHALLENGES
THAT CAME ABOUT
IN THE EARLY 2000s,
TO DEAL WITH SOME OF
THE ECONOMIC ISSUES
AND SOME OF THOSE TOPICS,
UH, OSCAR POINTED OUT.
PARTICULARLY, AROUND WORKFORCE.
TRYING TO BRING
THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM
TOGETHER WITH THE CHANGES
OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS
IN THIS COUNTY.
AND, ALSO, MAKING SURE
THAT THOSE CONDITIONS
ARE CONNECTED TO JOBS.
NOW, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
FOCUSING ON THESE
CRITICAL CLUSTERS,
AND I'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT WHAT WE MEAN BY CLUSTERS.
AGAIN, I THINK STEVE DID
A REALLY GOOD JOB IN SAYING
THAT CONDITIONS CHANGE,
AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO
STEP BACK A LITTLE BIT AND SAY,
"WHAT ARE THOSE CRITICAL
"DRIVING INDUSTRIES TODAY
"THAT ARE DIFFERENT THAN
"THEY WERE IN THE '90s?"
AND SOME ANALYSIS HAS
IDENTIFIED WHAT THEY ARE.
WHAT WE DID, WORKING WITH
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD
AND OTHERS, IS WE BROUGHT
TOGETHER BUSINESS LEADERS
IN THESE AREAS,
BECAUSE IT'S SO IMPORTANT
TO HEAR WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY,
IN TERMS OF WHAT
THEIR CRITICAL NEEDS ARE.
AND SO, WE DID HAVE
THESE FOCUS GROUPS,
AND I'LL EXPLAIN
THE PROCESS THAT WE USED.