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Thank you very much.
Good afternoon. I've really enjoyed
listening in to the discussions and debates this morning. And what I want
to do, is to take us on
a further journey. I want to stretch our thinking in some
additional directions regarding the future of your business.
And, I work with many of the largest telcos,
largest banks, largest IT companies. So I could be with Google one day, Microsoft
the next,
and so on. But, we're all operating in an extraordinarily
difficult time right now. And, one of the reasons why it's difficult,
is because every one of your competitors and everyone of your senior board has
one big question in their mind,
which is, what on earth to replace the current business model with,
because the current business model is bust. It can't
continue. And what I want to do now is to
take you on a journey inside your own mind. My views of the future are
completely irrelevant this afternoon, okay? You can debate them if you want to,
but I want you to use them simply as a springboard
to find new moments of genius inside your own head. Because you are the future of
Vodafone, it's inside
and the technologies that you invent. It's the initiatives, it's the innovations which
you are driving,
right now. I've talked to some of you. You're involved in cutting-edge things
that are going to transform, we hope, the future of this industry.
But whether or not people will buy those things and pay enough to justify
the future of Vodafone, that's the big question.
So what I want you to do, I what you to think as we go through,
not necessarily just about what I'm saying, and whether you agree with
it or not,
because I may not necessarily agree with everything I'm gonna say myself.
Alright. This is a space where I want us to think.
But I what you think, what you think the future will be
okay.
And then you're gonna have a chance to come back at me with some of that stuff and
we'll 'flip-chart it out' at very high speed.
So I wanted to write down odd words and phrases that come flinging though your
mind before you,
before you miss it. But before we go anywhere I want to ask one question: Where do you
get your best ideas from?
You are all leaders, that's why you're here. You are leaders have what you do.
and I'd say this you can't lead without a vision
all leadership is about having eight
vision of a better future which is exciting and compiling
and brings up the people with you okay so
actually as leaders you only need one great idea
every year why because it's hard to drive more than three major in unit is
at once
and each one usually takes three years to date set okay
so my question is where does your genes come from as a leader
where does that spark up the fresh vision and insight come
what is this extraordinary revelation come to shaman
that will drive your leadership shining for the next three years
where does it come from where to put your hands up with those insights come
to you
at work primarily put your hands up oh my goodness
your sorry I'm just post a moment
one said
okay track put your hands up if you get most if your ideas
your moments have genius outside of work
your greedy good ideas that's come to you outside with away to the come to you
driving home way to the come to you Fair Lawn
friend for a drink with friends where did they come from your
lunch time speaking with friends where did they come from Sherman pops
put your hands up if you get great ideas in the shower
its actually I'm doing a global Poland in a global survey
I can sell you up the last forty five thousand
people I have polled eighty-five percent get the best ideas in the shower
actually have exaggerated a little bit it's only fifty-five percent
really up put your hands up if you get so many great ideas
in the middle of the night but you have to go to sleep with the piece of paper
and a pen bio bed
again now what is it happens to you
you go to work and you kiss all you innovation goodbye
you go to work and almost all fresh fish in an insight
disappears you're just functioning
a what is it that happens inside your brains when you're released from all of
that stuff why is it that you are having
you'll know it your best moments of genius
outside the workplace please tell me white
relaxed
fire fighting all day long
you can't think correct
yes sorry if the Rangers ideas what you think you get a bigger range when you're
relaxed
would talking to people you connecting things together yes
Jenny the noise goes away
I call it unintentional genius
it's the genius that surprises you when you were not expect seems
not say that if you get nothing out to this entire week
understand this if you could discover where
is that your genius is found and spend more time there
I guarantee you you will be a great
don't laugh this is really important you will be a great
leader
up
that yes indeed indeed you have to be alive in the workplace to have these
genius moments because what's happening when your mind goes into mutual
as you're connecting all the pieces together that you've been grappling with
all these meetings and emails and noise
together in a unique way okay so what would we looking to create here
today this morning this already started is something greedy ins for you to have
those moments of genius
and where they gonna happen I can happen a4 o'clock
SmartMoney K can happen in the shower
on Thursday frightening sold
it could happen walking the dog or going out for a drink with a friend in two
weeks time
and finally that's why all slots its place and something happens to you so
that's what we're looking for today
looking for some the raw material for its make that happen okay
now my first my first comment I want to make about the future you've already had
a lot about it is this
don't the biggest mistake is to try look one trend in isolation
okay I will not do it I refuse to talk about the future telecom
that's what went wrong with the pentagon war games I I would talk to 500 general
so the pentagon
I was the first non-american ever to address that audience
about ways to reduce international tension
why did invite mean because they realize that one of the most dangerous things in
the world for american generals
spend too much time with american generals
good
and I'm not laughing
you see the greatest risk for the defense is institutional blindness
at the greatest risk to Google to and Microsoft
its we spent too much time with other people who are involved in
IT innovation systems and enterprise in dollars to it
inside the defense and the only spare time he spends in the pop
with other people from other telco companies IT companies are competing or
this is a risk so what we're trying to do is to look at the future the wide
awake than that
okay so am and all these trends are related says stuff happens in one part
of the world
triggers other things happens elsewhere stuff happens we live with all kinds of
uncertainties
not tell you this I don't care who you are strategies at the moment I'll
just about every one of the largest multinationals in the world
is getting overtaken by events things are happening in our world
which are overtaking judicial business thinking
and it might be a and events such as the pits but the possibility is say Greece
leaving the euro it might be
a yours out it might be an event
as such as a single a single earthquake which causes the meltdown a single
reactor
as a result is that a whole nation changes energy policy for the next 35
years
that that and it's that nation is Germany
as a result is that it puts x2 pressure on
energy prices in all kinds of other places as a result that and into
connected in a funny way
we have new technology being launched in America for shale
shale oil and gas extraction this extraordinary technology I want to show
it to you for a moment
it's nothing to do with your business but as an example the kindest things
that happen in
every business sector in the world which overtaking
strategy okay so look at this
this is five years ago we were told by the energy companies themselves
that on their own estimates they thought that would be out of gas worldwide
within sixty years even allowing for new technology
five years later they've revised their estimate and they now say
they think we have enough gas to last two hundred years actually they're wrong
it's at least a thousand years and I wrote a whole book about this
and the reasons because they haven't even begun to look in the right place
yet
okay is plenty guess around the big question is at what cost
to the environment about cost to our economy to get that stuff
out but he is the issue
look what happened to the strategy that the whole stretches around
nuclear a reactors and cost to call on the cost to bring your balls
suddenly everything's changed and if you don't believe me if you look at the
price up to
the price of gas on an act or no access
it for it was up here at just
four years ago it's now down there
so we have coal-fired power stations going out a business 57 coal-fired power
stations were closed in america in the last 12 months
that was not in the plan it was to happen over a bit longer than that
another example a bit is a is what's been happening with solar power
a.m.
site this is the gas prices here up
look a high his 2004
yet nor up to 14 of now look at the gas prices
you can almost in fact it is so cheap that you look from space
the flesh from gas as brighter than
any the cities like Chicago in america that's happening a very short space of
time
look at set up our a and you look at the prices so the cells this wasn't supposed
to happen this fact was not supposed to happen for another six or seven years it
has
this is that this is a technology very close to you
intel's a client to mine chips
is the same whether they're in the computer whether they're in a solar cell
device
it's the same technology it's all to do with scale and the prices these things
that follows so dramatically
that we no longer need a government subsidy an order to put them on your if
op just we thought that up until 2020 we would need
to be able to paint to be paying for not fun a huge amounts of money just to
persuade you to put them on the roof
%uh your house now the latest consignments that have come in
in containers in October from China are so cheap
that you can borrow money from your bank put them on the roof of your house
and without any government subsidy look to make money off it
on it every single month simply by the cost up the electricity
you say it's happening fast
and I and that's why
my first comment is this that you need more than one strategy to stay alive if
you're know about
mobile company or toca the days of having only one stressed
other that's why you're in innovation because you have
plan a but you also investing in Plan B Plan C
because you're not quite sure exactly which one of these technologies is going
to take off
well your revenues are really going to come from
if you are of Eric Schmidt about the future
Google he will tell you that he has no idea
he can't see more than 36 months ahead
in fact he has difficulty seeing 18 months or he could tell you is what's in
the Innovation Lab
and he knows a stutter those things will go into the market and one-tenth that
those will actually work
so he has more than one strategy does Google
many difference test is and Vodafone needs more than once to see two
what I fear as a lot to telcos are not going to survive in a car phone because
I have
that almost everything on only once testing we heard earlier
about big bet on only one strategy they were
okay they were right that's a big risk and Vodafone can't afford to take that
risk so
I want to look through the eyes of the customer now
because again that's an area where we can easily become blind what I mean by
that I mean an old customer
a young customer how much they could be a a burial customer comes one in a
moment
one of the problems we've we haven't even worked out is the right size of the
device
I noticed that some %uh view not carrying devices which are even larger
than this is made of phones
some expecting to be this size
in terms of the actual screen size in the next six months on current trends I
mean how big do you want to go
and as as sweet as devices get larger they also get smaller
I we can fit a device in two sizes a brain
and in fact that we can detach
voice and gesture and sought control and in I just using cameras to watch s
II that's tomorrow yes actually the day after tomorrow
is to control by thinking 11 I
we already have that technology for computer games but to implant the chips
is interesting see I'm a position in my first training
so I'm particularly interested in the opportunity
for Vodafone to create by a digital brains
that obviously is where about technology is going off to all
you make it smaller and smaller the interface is so clumsy
you know I can only speak to you at 100 words per minute but you can sync
at 10,000 was a permit easily
because one picture is worth 1000 words you only have to see ten pictures and
you I
your imagination and you already think it ten thousand words per minute
so it's all about getting stuff in could we connect
a mobile device right inside your brain yes of course we can
appears one at this is that this is a brain
at missus brain tissue growing onto the surface of a change
this chip as a traditional Czech with just some projections
to capture brain cells we we just at kleck brain cells we grow them
we shake them up we allow the brain cells to settle onto the surface of the
chip
you bring the chip out you then wash it
and you put it in one place and you make sure that the cells
of it some food so they can go and this is what happens you see
only if you have brains which are programs to connect
with Vodafone devices okay it's true
every one of you has cells which will automatically if I grow your brain cells
onto the surface of a chip this is what they do
they grow branches looking for intelligent life
and when they find electrical currents they put out more branches and you get
bandwidth
its yeah that's true you getting just one cell to the other that
reduce connections and the mall electrical connections there are
the bigger the cable becomes but if you grow them on the surface of the chip
and there are electrical signals on the surface of the Czech
the brain cells think they found home
and every time they sent sick an electrical signal they grow another
brunch and you get bad ways between brain cells
and brain cells and brain cells and
at the surface of the chip but it's too bright
and that we have been implanting these devices into mice
and rats for over 10 years and these mice and rats communicate using mobile
technology
3G technology and other things like that wifi
and they connect each break each brain to the other brain
using my bow signals so they are these mice and rats I able to send each other
assault as so here's a nice
in a cage here and the there's another one in Australia
and the mouse here is thirsty but he cannot get water
all he can do is send assault
he is sending a thought this is absolutely true he is sending the
thought to another mouse
in Australia or not somewhere else the other mouse is interpreting that sort
and heat then press the lever in his cage
he then gets a drink
this mouse says thank you thank you
mouse over here gets her or
now you know of course I mean you are all
excited by technology I could see that you are what these devices inside your
brain put your hands up if you would like one
I have one here up
put your hands up a good like me to give you one of these
have okay put your hands up
if you are certain that this is not the way
for you to go
you see my friends we've done something very important about technology
I couldn't care less about how clever your innovations are
talked about the Symbian operating system not has been a club my fears
the questions this is the technology
you creates going to be something that people are passionate about
because we begin to learn we could see the future
lebowe I just shown you and you're saying
no see the future
nepal is not about being clever the future
about let's connect with passion
it's no longer about what we can do
that's history it's about what
we actually want
and that is the most important lesson we have to learn
when it comes to innovation and I can't give you 100 two examples of technology
innovation
which has failed to engage people and has been consigned
to the rubbish tip of history
and I don't care what you're doing I an enterprise solution for customer in the
business
our the providing a new method to streaming video at half the price
for someone in the retail market is the same it's about
it's about touching emotion Sabah understand how people feel let me give
you another example
of this emotion seeing
am time
the perception time is changing dramatically
am let's imagine that your watching TV
and you're trying to get out to Wikipedia the name is the artist that to
that is on the show okay you want to buy a copy and you Wikipedia isn't a good
example I see because it's usually very fast site but you've gone to some sites
or other
some entertainment guide and you press the button and
ok how long do you wait before you click the back button
34 seconds put your hands up with you ate less than three seconds for you
pressed about past
okay up what is 1234 would be fair to say that you've just lost 30 percent W
business in three seconds
yes now that's today
you tell me tomorrow I wanted to just keep that figure in mind
30 percent increase
Street all long would it take
a website to lose eighty percent of its traffic before you press the back button
how many seconds 5 5 you think
me up could be if you are I suggest that if you in a remote part in the air with
the fam with this low you will
probably be more tolerant okay dots
I suggest to you that if you are new york
in McDonnell's you wait five seconds
before eighty percent gone right I just want to hang on to that figure
that yesterday so tell me tomorrow in what year do you think it will be
two seconds to lose eighty percent of a live check
what year do you think your the future is not me
what you think 2015 it
2018 2018
actually I think it's coming soon as an
next year you watch people
my children's age they wait hop seconds
if he doesn't have a second I think the masai test crashed
next next put your hands up if you have recently tried
to buy car insurance online
how long did it take you
15 minutes 20
you fail
what is a feel like
when you called even get insurance after twenty minutes
remember you told me that three seconds is enough to make you so
mad you want to kill the site okay so
I just want to understand futures about emotion is no longer
about the web or pink leather I'm trying to help you to understand how
irritated you feel of 22 seconds here's another thing
on his my mum my mom is here
my dad died sadly a few years ago and he felt me up one day
and Jesus said look I have always said I would never do any banking online
I never want have email and anybody who gets that details over the phone with
the credit card
is mad but I had to change my mind because
everyone communicates by Facebook and email and then they write me a postcard
and then I miss all my social life so please can you come upon Tyne online so
I went
I went round I wondered if she was
ill need to psychological help because this is such a big change for
I said no look in my eyes I need you to take me
shopping now so we went shopping to the biggest computer shop like a fine
she said she wanted a skipping computer she knew about video skype this what you
wanted
she knew it had to have a broad it has a broad and abandon it somewhere
and it will be wireless in the garden so we came back a course with a
a complete package that she wants the past says the fastest and the most
powerful
PCI compulsively provide that she could physically carry
around the garden X I but wifi in the house
we bought a nice smartphone she could see it first thing
video calls it's great she's sending emails to have friends in 24 hours the
following day she finds me
Patrick yes the something very wrong with this machine
see what's up well that the computer is fine but the phone is rubbish
she says I'm phone in my bag but they said the call see me
good I said what I'm not surprised I don't think they have video
in the call centres David
what happened to us what happened then
you see the bank made a fundamental error they had listen to my mother and
believes what she said
you should never believe market research listen to people but don't believe them
she my wife but my mother had about my wife
not by much my mother had told the bag for thirty years
do not even talk to me about online banking telephone banking I don't even
want I want you to come and see me
okay so for thirty years they had deliberately produced exactly what my
mother said she wanted
and then one day she moved 30
years into the future in three hours
and left bank behind here's the question: how long will it take
Barclays Bank to video enable
although that call centers using Vodafone technology two years
how long would it take them to make the decision in the vault
another two years and in four years time what kind of technology do you think
they have and you think my mother will still be using it
well she'll be probably moved on so what we begin to see is the real risk
of blindness we get propelled by things which we think our customers want
which they don't we go we go to clever
for things which they are never going to use I we find that sent
our customers tell us lies about the future and we believe them
and we build all the wrong stuff so what's the right answer
the right answers we need to listen carefully to my mother
we need to absolutely respect what she says
she says she's fed up because she gets through to you and you can't get so
quickly
we need to listen to what she says and put it right she's talking about things
now let's put it right boss
when it comes to longer-term if you're thinking about watch kinda customer
should be in three years time
she doesn't know you know
maybe because you are Inc
you what you have before you the tools of the future you're creating the tools
in the future
so what we need to do to get those future my mother
we need to know her better than she knows herself
here in her world and then we need to build a
vision what her future world could be with our help
and try to imagine how she might behave
if she could see them which she calms
and then we will find ourselves in a much better place
to go into the future now okay so his present
here's my mother now and you too
put your hands up if you get through to a call center
and the press suppress one for counts best to the customer service
we do you think your calls important please hang on
put your hands up the fund really annoying
put your hands up and keep them if you find it's so annoying that you think
that
anyone that puts a such a system into the for into the
electricity company should be put in prison and the keys runaway
my next question is put your hands up if in your part of the world
you are using such a system for some of the most important customers
what happens please
you've told me that two seconds is enough to make you really mad
and now that you're getting depressed about every button is another five
second press
so what i'm saying is we need to have a reality check here
because way for not careful we all we will find ourselves constructing a
company for future
that no longer exists from business models which %uh
utterly bust broken and we'll find ourselves gong
okay cuz
if thats today how annoyed with your customers be tomorrow in the stands
second way
now I'm not saying we should get rid of call centers and
automated systems but what's what he should do not and you have to
acknowledge you have built it
you know USA we could put in the technology with sees me coming in
you recognize me for my incoming about phone number and you on algorithms can
predict
with a 95 percent accuracy the reason for the call
cracked on the first call you know you know me
you know my account you have done the analysis
so you could probably put me right through immediately to the right
Department and if we have a one customer views we were hearing about
earlier which I'll come back to it shouldn't matter too much anyway
because whoever takes the core concede the entire situation
now we're a long way from that but I'm here's another example extraordinary
blindness
a very different technology in your back-end systems and processes of
fundamental to so many businesses
let me think about call centers for a moment not your call centres
your customers call centres let's imagine a travel company
so here I am I'm I'm in agent okay
I sit in front of my screen which has the script on it
and I've got the headset on hello can I help you and the script is guiding me
through and it says I would like to I'm interested in your
online offer great
and the first published I probably can't see the offer I'm seeing the
inch on that version of the offer which is different from the pages which are
online and that tell you
that is often the case is more the problem is they
that's at Jamies telling me I can see a competitor's of a fifty percent less for
the same flight and the same hotel
using rear and I'm saying really
I can see it why because they plucked my internet access because they don't want
me to use Facebook
should it's true I achieved if I could see it
i'd have to get rid of my script in order to have a look
but Jamie who's talking to me jamie has
is being is got the TV on I can see that
I he's got it iPad in front of him on which he has 18 web page is already open
his desktop in the corner thereof is home office has another 15 web pages
and his or is actually walking towards it now to look at some other pages
he's got at i phone in his pocket and is on his Blackberry
and a friends going because
they are also a sitting on the sofa over there and they've just found an even
better offer
and Here I am I'm completely blind is not crazy
so we see call center technology is hardly advance to I'm just saying
this is another example quite literally Brian this here is someone who's
totally blind to a multi-channel multitasking consume in a completely
different world
said okay so yeah we talked about for Desiree I had a Fitch
up back in the old nineteen who is this
1999 I think Tesco a enable my fate so uniquely cancer awareness other one
comes through the door
was any good now
use this this is used as I mean what you have you actually like to surf the
internet
on the on the dole on your fridge
I'm it its bombing it's completely bed is its technology Carl
stock raving mad
here's another example here is a fantastic offering from Intel I'm so
sorry we should take that of the tape
but this is Intel's offering softball that you can surf
and South on the web and email I'm undersea
at the same time it's fantastic
here's another example of convergence you see convergence tells us that
everything is everywhere
internet is in the surfboard the cesspool becomes a bank
greats here's another example converges tells a
this is last century and we are all going to have one of these
these cost one euro put your hands up if you own one
this is a universal remote to get rid of all these horrible things
put your hands up if you have one look only one of you has it you are the
techno
enthusiasts of the world you are at the cutting edge of
all innovation you are other people who love to spend money on technology
and you're still using these
even though this costs one year
why because of
what emotion it's because you are emotionally attached
you go to bed with these under your pillow they are possible psychological
future
up its troop
up and maybe a taxi costs 15 to 20 euros but considering how much you pay for an
iPhone that's not very much
my friends yes
I I just helping us to understand that this convergence story I'm just wants to
provide a counterbalance
remember I don't necessarily believe everything on going to say just make
wants to make us think actually the futures about diversions
summer the future is about divergence why's that
well you see I would argue the whole convergence is boring
and no one makes money from
I'm very bored with cars these days
my wife and i own NG which is 38 years old
and it looks like a car it feels like a cop
its unique its special all the cars today
actually eighty percent of them in the UK are great did you know
gray is the almost universal car color these days they're all designed in a
wind tunnel
they all have the same features they all have electronic locking they have for
I air conditioning they have the digital radio they have
a ABS Brake they have win back every time that produce in innovation
one manufacture produces an innovation there is con a chance
everyone else decides to do the same am every single car
has the same stuff in it the only difference is well they all have the
same number we use the same number of seats
it's boring actually it's really bad news for making money
it's the same with bones they all look the same couch
a it's really difficult and as for these iPad the iPad
the only difference is this once cracked and the other one isn't but I me quite
frankly an iPod is starting to look very commercial product isn't
really so tell me where does your competitive advantage common a
convergent world
because everyone will copy you
let iPad go out make no mistake maybe
mmm you can early yes if you're lucky
so you make money but being divergent to in this came out it was so divergent
that we had a one of the biggest business people in the UK saying it was
rubbish
because it was so different it was literally off-center
in in that we collect X centric of
Center weird peculiar bizarre why would you do it
it's a complete nonsense that is that divergent product
and iPod got it right because they had or had somehow
managed to future my mother you know one of the biggest buyers are
iPad's are people over the age of 65
yeah why because you can make the screen larger
so while I just once to see that
if all innovation all innovation true innovation
I'm not talking about copycat innovation
I'm not take about innovation where we say I'll his car has got
a satellite navigation welded into the cockpit
we will do the same i'm talking about.
all or now let's make sure hours also has live traffic data
that is pure converges it is not clever
its absolutely stupid it simply look you are other people by doing the maths
and seeing if you can make it for cheaper
and that is what happens to converge in people they go spiraling down
more more features more more the same and they go down on price
and that is not where you want to be
so where you want to be if your Vodafone
deferred we have found a stunning new business model
we've got a completely different price packaging
we got a totally different approach to customer service
we've got a radical way I reengineering enterprise software solutions
that's completely transforms how that at efficiency that business
that no one else got anywhere near
and a sin is that while starts converging on to territory you've gone
somewhere else
left behind flights doubt I'll give you another example love
*** of divergence this thing which I printed out
her so
was the same price as collagen into walls
about ten years ago
actually to so indicate you couldn't manufacture that as a single unit
but that came out up my printer as a single device
what's really interesting about it allows you as telecom to go into
manufacturing
because you can send a physical object through space
from one side to the world together and most fascinating evil
will be to put this up to in a scanner in your home
and the other side the world cuts in bed from about technology
nikolai has an identical product coming out
in his hand so teleporting a physical objects
is an interesting past future now up
I'm just saying its divergent think it's different from the idea
of traditional manufacturing okay Sep
let me discuss was about things but okkk while telecom muddies
would sit while telco models are going bust well here's
here's an example sorry about that to %uh video
as you know to %uh video what's on a fairly low resolution is equivalent to
two hundred thousand text emails
a high-resolution bit I'm even took about two gig
streams overt I mean how many emails is that
its it it two million three million
for 5 what the country's quite quickly
is that if you think about video
a high-resolution videos couldn't to hundreds of thousands of phone calls
and almost infinite amount email and fat the idea of charging the phone calls and
emails
SMS is gone the engine ready masses video let's come back to this
guess have a look at what it means a bit more detail look at the total ban with
we talk about total bandwidth and we can argue how quickly stopping
about 8 eighties aid bad with is growing almost all that time with growth
is videotaped as we look at SAC
mobile phones in in France at this is a a secret story so I can't name the
company
habits to at a recently one of the largest telcos in France
*** signed contracts with a very small
distributor a band with that allow that company to go on selling to
retail I'm their own at sin taxes
and I forgot to cap the contract and what was happening is that was selling
iPhones and other devices
basically with an unlimited cap on streaming
I guess how much gigabytes how many gigabytes
these average users were using
is about 13 gigabytes every four days
I think what what after the doing I have to watching
DVD's all night we don't quite know what they were doing
but they were doing a lot of it up
Singapore few minutes the shopping center forty seconds it takes from the
bottom to top the escalator that's long enough to open
your device start watching a TV program cause
two seconds is an eternity forty seconds plenty time
so well speeding up all to do with video
video being used anywhere and everywhere and video too often just about
everything else
I'm and
yes just think about that for a moment
already I mean it's two years ago seventy percent of all UK time with came
from to web sites
seventy percent all UK use
up the wet what were the two web sites
you chief and no
nope Facebook consumes 0 BAM with why
because it's just text in photographs you can have millions of them
but just keep of the video the one side that conceives forty-percent
all UK time which was just one TV company
called the BBC just with one
player because they happen to get that first at
on current trends it will not be long it will not be long before ninety five
percent
all BAM with in the European Union is simply streaming video
the rest is nonsense so wise the business model
broken I'll tell you what because it ninety five percent
all the bomb was on your networks is video or will be soon
and you'll still charging contracts based on Voice minutes
as an *** and you got a little bit data per month with the limit on it
that is so last century what we should be doing is saying
basically you have a video contract and all the rest is free
hello that's where it's going
so actually what's your business about
ship is about voice now is about SMS
absolutely not is about email absolutely no way
is about Facebook no is about LinkedIn
no what is it about it's about 50
yeah
sup
a by the way his typical typical want to customers how many contractors you got
how is it a he or she he s how did you know
okay the train in the mess
of course so still firstly how many contractors you got running
can you come in he should have won by how many do you think is actually go
what you think is what you what you think the pace per month
they're all on on a monthly basis he's got a
is gone i pad yes it or not I contract which may well be difficulty than the
other yet
what else you got he's got an iPhone his almost certainly got a blackberry on
that desk somewhere
he's got a as got a physical a broadband coming in has Nick
is got yet I would think he's probably got a fixed-line
am his he may well have a subscription to some kinda service allows it have
wifi
in other other locations I'm yep
a bug where is a I me of just don't fall where is a
is in the toilet
what you doing in the toilet has been up to twenty-five minutes what you doing in
there
him bus
if sega's iPad Yessica diver it wasn't
mmm he's getting ideas up
actually a well what you think seriously
a you know what see when this stupid call centres these blind blind call
center operators this phone Tim
just hello is that rigid yes
is sitting on the toilet up
does she know nope what you doing
is now seven internet on the toilet check what she says is correct
I'm just saying that we need to be thinking I
traditional marketing is dead to the idea in a few good
digital multi-channel customers no no no no no they saw
he saw up multi-dimensional customers who living symbol Tennessee in their
work and their leisure world to online
offline you are shopping and they're not shopping shopping in a retail store
shopping in a retail store but they're using your device your mobile device
to fizz 222 order the goods online to connect it collected
in a few hours as another branch the same store
that they are shopping online and buying it fit and then going into letting you
physically in the store the whole world is fusing into one
it's a very complicated place for retailers wholesalers
and toca companies this guy is online
somewhere else we are really interested in where he is
that's the most important factor for us you you have
and your fingertips in your databases I know that you
you got huge innovation going untended your analytics in california that's
exactly what you should be doing
because the most important thing is not what he's doing
its way is because that tells you how he's feeling
and if you know how he's feeling
you know how to connect with him and to make the decision
because when you combine that
with what you know he's been doing Prince easy in the Piazza
or arrest row are easy at work very important
is yet school collecting his child
if he is don't call him now its
absolutely critical to know where the person is even better if you know where
they are physically within the building
even more you never in a conference room there
their own desk or in there in the cafeteria you have three completely
different conversations
with the same person at work one of the reasons why I
find I i dislike taking calls on a mobile
i funny same personal it's a route they have no idea what they're interrupting
they come crashing into my life yet the right
we accepted
yeah if I walk around the corner just now at lunch time I was looking for some
but said
specialists it and I'm thinking not just an empty chair I'm seeing what part of
the core so they'll
who else is sitting there on the in the conversation like that busy doing some
deal
or can I join in all this kind of emotional intelligence is going on
before I decide where to sit the phone is completely blind
where you can turn it into something that can see
because you know you know where I am you know at what speed on physically moving
you know I must be either driving a car I'm in a taxi
you know whereof come from my home you predicted technology has already told
you where I'm going
which is work because I would go to work at the time a day
see on you are now right inside my life and that's even without being able to
capture transactions
and course when you couple it with radio frequency identification device
technology the technology things we talked about
so I now we know that I'm sitting in a cab
at the cap goes on that doesn't know who I am the caps to spread my glasses
is read the RFID on my glasses the cab driver knows the caps technology
the taxi technology knows that I am I like brand names
because the in the can meet the Browns knows I have bifocals which means that I
need reading glasses which means I'm
over 50 you can see that I have high income because the brand of the classes
and straightaway the at that comes up on the TV screen inside the taxi
or into my mobile phone using
apparently at random I a lazy Creek should I century
now you're absolutely right the hearing about speaking one of the greatest
challenges a retail right now
and for you is you get too clever remember I told you the future is not
about technology is not about being clever
it's about being emotionally sensitive
you stop bombarding me with all kinds of messages that makes you think that
you're reading my brain
and I will be very upset so the glaze a correction thing has to come as if by
accident
along with a stream of consciousness about other things as well it just comes
up
lays its up to five seconds and goes on but it just
but you what you the customer doesn't know is the shared
shiver discern analytical genius behind
engine and at thats Google's problem right now
Google could be much clever than is being at the moment intends its search
results Google is deliberately winding down a lot of the search result
to make otherwise would just freak you out okay
and I here's another example which this is a fusion of my boss I walk along
towards the coke machine
is my mobile device think I'll says you are one meter
to me just three meters you walk in the hallway the turnaround
if a victory will come out the Coca Cola machine why's that
because as an act of course the axes the mobile phone
the app concert at list machine can detect my mobile phone is within 10
meters
it sent the SMS automatically at the machine has already been broken this is
chip
already been program to produce a unique flavors it has the pre
packets labor's and a unique flavor for me
my customized ring in the memory of coca-cola
in the clouds and i'm told as I walked towards the machine
don't come outcomes my favorite drink as I pick it up
the machine the dots cost my on my
mobile phone so we're talking about a world where
yes everything's moving into the cloud just like the multinationals are falling
ordinary people we've been in the cloud as individuals
for five years or ten of course gmail
Facebook LinkedIn YouTube
our entire world to being cloud-based for some time it's just that
multinational companies are struggling to get into the future
I'm house Google change Google isn't in Szabo
see Google is to be blind
why you could spend too much time into clever with Search Engine
algorithms and along comes
other algorithms to undermine your
algorithms and you have this war going on between marketing companies
I'm Google Google trying to produce the right listings
and marketing companies trying to make sure that their products come to the top
right so what happens is Google
begins to a save just in the nick of time the thing that has saved Google
is one word one phrase which is social networks
without social networks the Google algorithm was getting Procrit
progressively
undermined so cool realized and Facebook realized
which is why Facebook has now gone into such
as I predicted Google Facebook no
that whoever controls social networks will control the future search
and whoever controls the future search will control the future
online and the reason is this
they've realized that actions only one
sis once you've done the basic
analysis and that is how many people that you know where I'll
or people who think like NOLA
whose brains are programs in those same kinda way
with the same kinda interests personality profile
and states have life and living in the same area
working for a similar company how many people like you
when the presented with a thousand if web sites will find
just tourism that really important
and if you can find that out you sold the problem
and you sold in the way that this spammers the marketing spammers
cart fix so that's why Google
has gone so big in two sets that side you launch the G Plus that hasn't
work particularly well but it so it's it's the end the hype
it's the end marketing its and a spin
it's the and of stuff it's all about trust
its all abouts things like Facebook it's all about relationships
TripAdvisor is just one site a review site
as you know I'm sure you've all been there matching you type in the name of
the London hotel
and see first thing comes up saying it's the most fantastic place the second is
awful I nearly died rats food poisoning
you got one choice 1-click you either go to one of these two
are you go to the official website which is now been pushed onto a pay-per-click
thing on the ride
which to cancel first put your hands up if you go for the wonderful stay first
put your hands up to go further acts first
put your hands up if you don't believe either of them you go for the official
site
written by the marketing department
we see your typical and I could tell you that home almost everyone in the world
will go straight for the story of the rats only one problem with this
who wrote the story about the rats competitor of course
and who wrote the story about the wonderful honeymoon the hotel
yep
exactly there's lots of legal cases about this at the moment
and you don't do it under the hotel name or you get fined
by bite supervisor know you do it subtly you you get you from the a friend
who's got a neighbor who's got a brother and he's got a friend
and you pay him $10 dollars and he does it
that's a problem with the session that was which the power of now here's an
interesting thing
you knew you the truce because you are sophisticated people
you knew that both of these were probably made up
but you all went for the rats
you knew that it is likely that out the official
marketing department was actually more accurate than either of them
but you still went for the rats so what it shows is that marketing is dead in
the online world you've shown me that
when you show me is that the opinion a perfect stranger
even if you think there are a liar will still be more powerful for you
in the choices you make than anything that can be produced by the defense
published State Department
yep so now we begin to see a motion to gain
actually emotion is very powerfully generated by consumer comment
and the defendant our future will be made not by clever innovation
not just by the emotional connection by innovation has with the customers
but we made his last emotional connection your customers have
you as an organization and with each other
and I have said this is creeping up now you know in the olden days you just
paid money in your marketing department and you paid to get your own
your pay-per-click ad that's up here on the right doesn't work anymore
Google is now ranking the ads see you now starting to see stars come up on the
right hand side here
and if you're add does not get enough popularity ratings on it
it will no longer show on Google doesn't care
you have one billion dollars to spend but Google will put you there
so at the writings there on the wall for us in terms of building trust and
understanding that is all about two one customer experience
it's about understanding what my mother once been really close to her
understanding the inside out back from funny I just want to say something about
payments
for me a for the last at ten years every time I've gone year
large bank of said watch out you need to become a telco
and every time I go on your lot talk out said watch out you need to become a bank
and i'm going to ask you a question in a moment I'm going to benchmark your
was responses we have a hundred new mobile payment systems launched in the
last
Katie months we have up at
we've had 200 million mobile payments
globally in the last year eighty percent them in Africa
almost all of them East Africa you might think that mobile payment innovation is
happening
in developed countries isn't almost all other mobile payments in the world have
happened in one country which is
Kenya using a system called empresa correct
I'm and just look how mobile payments have grown from
know what to more than $4 billion in paper often just
123 years this is a phenomenon which is growing it should make you either
excited or alarmed when you go to sleep at night
Kenya seventy million customers one-third of Kenya's GDP is traded on MP
Sir
one-third can you imagine that in the UK
up a-tens India as it has just open up and pee so they already have 30
at nine million people using are more people in Africa have
access to my father an electricity as some %uh view no
very well and
safekeeping is much more important than saving money
it's keeping its its its it's not the saving it the moving up cash
from one place to another at the speed of light it's making sure that the cash
till
is in the system that you can get it out I'm
whenever you need 1.7 billion phone users in the world have no bank account
think about it banks get a rough ride in the UK
I tell you this a world without banks is a living hell how do I know that
because in bob way I have in my my pocket here a 10
trillion dollar banknote printed in Zimbabwe
that's not the problem in Zimbabwe actually I've been involved in aids
program in Zimbabwe feeding orphans
when inflation is running at $1 billion per cent no problem
that's not the problem the problem was no bags
I can cope with an inflation rate but when you go to bank and we've tried you
put money into one bank account in London
and it goes to a a as it poppin bank and then between ones in bob with bangs
and another the money goes walkabout that's a problem
when you have people that are completely armbands they whether
what where'd where'd you find the wealth it's cold and what do they wear
from the neck say if your mother and you got a three-year-old child will have to
do is stick a knife
towards your child and you get me only for Gold there and then
Utah wealth is as vulnerable as one man
with one knife with one child
one scary moment that is a number world
you have one point seven billion people many of whom are your customers you have
$100 million customers in India alone where are you from India
$100 million customers in India alone correct and I'm going to take a guess
that at least 70 million them have no bank account
and I'm certainly going to take a guess at that portion will increase
as you roll outs and expand so that more lower-income people get hold of your
technology you'll find it goes up even more from seventy percent
eighty-five percent even in some parts of India will be completely I'm backed
what an amazing opportunity this is not just to put in and
you just launched in Pisa type system I know
but that's just phase one a we put that ford five years we start to stink
about what kind of world that you could start to be managing for people
and forgets the SMS all the email all the evening
at the other bits and pieces with talking about a completely different
relationship with the phone
I'm at and in South Africa who see it was South Africa
are you know these are already sixty-five percent all such a quest
weekends are on my pal
already I wish we were dealing with an extraordinary exciting
transformation and very large numbers of
of people I using about shifting towards internet
I think it's the II it's hard to over states the significance
of these changes so I think that at least
200 million people will gain their first financial services access
using mobile technology in the next 12 months
now will begin to see the possibility of new business models
up two million beep businesses are already is in square
in the US who is seen square here
put your hands up if you've already taken a credit card payment using a
mobile phone
one you all ought to do it just you should do why because it's free
and life's too short the future is about mobile payments
it's about this kinda technologies yes convergence
here the device which cost me absolutely nothing I pop it straight in here you
could make credit card and I could take payment for me
in less than five seconds strewn I'll take Commission
2.3 percent but that's what ollie only a all the devices do
around London but were talking about a very big transformation because it means
that
a trader in India who has the in a small village
weathers no electricity but he does have a mobile phone
and a battery pack he can now take a credit card payment
all receive a credit concerts transaction using his technology
we are an on the edge of something really
extraordinary as a say ants I'm
what I'd like you to do is to put it all together and tell me what it means for
your business bottles
I'm okay
a Vietnamese the nirvana is to put fingerprint recognition
on this as well
am that we just to skip okay
is part is paying it has just a has just launched they've had the last few months
1.2 million downloads in the UK alone
eighty percent to people that receive a payment using an SMS
and the ticket system register 15 to 20 percent to these customers are not boxes
customers that these
this is your church leadership in your your your future but is being taken by
Baucus
while earth is buck is being allowed to dominate Micah payments in the UK
I cannot imagine because you're going to be left
a simply be charging for the bandwidth handling the transaction
you going to be less busy revenue in this process virtually nothing
I accept being able to charge the videos great
so
now just skip through I think okay so let's imagine a hypothetical partnership
between
Vodafone Nokia Google american express
in the UK let's imagine a world where every smartphone has now got to
fingerprint recognition on it every flat screen you put your finger on that
in SEO so now we could have secure credit card transactions for up to one
hundred thousand dollars
at the speed of light at with no other
company involved and so that we can capture
let's think about we could capture $600 billion a year
transactions that some cards at the moment sixty billion a
thats average contract interest rate is sixteen percent great
now this is the slide I was finishing
is the sly I pinching a slide like this to both the senior team to some the
largest telcos in the largest banks over the last five years
I asked him a question and I'm asking you the same question
and I will benchmark your answer against this okay
here's the is the issue unit with we had about Moore's Law today
we can quarrel about the exact speed at which is happening but the fact is that
the cost of technology is falling towards your
okay yep the cost to telco
the cost to ban with gigabyte is falling towards era
yet the cost to providing a new iPad for you every year
falling towards era it isn't 0
but new research you saw what happened to gas prices that's your future
it's not a good place to be the cost
of the the the income that we could get from capturing mobile transactions by
moving them credit cards
onto the my bus system is rising exponentially
at some point these two lines cross I want you to tell me which you as you
think it is
it 2050 or is it 2010 T or 2015
what happens when these two lines cross is this
say I got to Muhammad Yunus a
this iPhone scrapped would you like a new one for free
shop she s so would you like to because I'm sure you got a partner or a child or
something
I'll give it to you I pass I will change is iPad's
every 12 months for free would you like that see he yeah
as it by the way I give you I give you whatever edge tech phone
on I thought I'd give it to mobile phones latest generation smartphone
technology
which aims and every 12 months you've got four devices now by the way
do you have broadband at home yes yes yes I will give you broadband
I think gotta move the package to use LOVEFiLM or
sky what you use and you say I'll give you three
unlimited movies you can have as many movies as you like
on a mobile I'll or on but not out of the country okay only in Egypt
alright and looked at generous
he's a yes okay but what's the catch
Isaiah unlimited yes I can't get it unlimited SMS
I'm a ninja voice calls unlimited yeah I understand what you have to do
NEC think you want it out
to you without you've got it okay
to call it out all the cards on the desk
all right okay you can keep one
which when you gonna choose to say american express okay reg key to make
space
is the deal and we'll be looking
one thousand dollars maximum a month on american express
nowhere else nemelka us
okay what we do is we lotta love that haunts the mobile phone just believe me
it works
you don't need to know to understand how it just works
it will cost you anything in fact it's free
and see how to do it solid is because we charge all the merchants 2.5 percent
the technology cost is virtually nothing we don't have to have any this loss
entry stuff
its halted still it's all done by Vodafone with you should see our
technology innovation department
they're really clever I we make so much money on this
actually you know what would make a lovely profit on this am
and use the days are having a contract over I mean no one's going to go into a
mobile phone shop in a cheap
I a mobile phone anymore it's just a question which mobile device you'd like
with your financial services are you ready to sign
fine just sign here it's a 24 month contract
and we will give you your new device will arrive tomorrow by FedEx
and you get your new devices a year later thank you
you get new devices now and then and the year you get your
next not a new devices if you win you the contract will carry on
now put your hands up if you think that that could happen some company could
stop offering such a div
such a package within the next ten years but the heads up
and course you read the headlines because it's already here
cracked okay just look at singapore it started already
put your hands up with you think you could happen in a European country
within the next five years
okay know what you told me my friends I just want you to hold up a mirror to you
what you told me and I'm not going to repeat his outside this room
you what you told me is exactly the same as every large bank has told me
and every large telcos told me and every large
IT company is called me and every phone manufactures told me exactly the same
which is that they expect this is inevitable
is the most debates about the future and not about what is going to happen
what's going to happen is obvious its only signing
now you've told me the future
you told me that the day's Atoka models are broken
existing models are broken I started by suggesting
that the only thing you be able to charge for if you choose video and the
rest would be packaged in for free
but I see you go further is now told me the actual days a charging for telco
over
it. it's all going to be about financial services
now with that when I was just take a deep breath
I don't necessarily believe everything I just said
and just say
okay what I like to do now is just brainstorm what you really think about
this
sup okay deep breath 30 seconds just think
is one of the complete start raving loony bonkers mad
or what we think not just about the banking thing but what we think in
general
what you think gosh up
yet the point Cape just just hang just a moment
just just 30 second walk just just 36 more just
just reflect for a moment
okay just got fifteen minutes what we're going to do is a big bring some before I
do anything I just want to ask how you feel
not what you think