Causation

Here is my next quiz for you. Supposed we have a coin with probability p. For example, p might be 0.5. You flip the coin twice and I want to compute the probability that this coin comes up head and...

Look at this, this is very nontrivial but armed with this, we can now build up the truth table for all the cases of the two different variables, cancer and non-cancer and positive and negative tests...

So coin 1 has a probability of heads equals P₁ and coin 2 has a probability of heads equals P₂ and this may have now be different probabilities. In a primary environment, they can account this by...

And the answer is, the prior isn't affected by the measurement, so the probability of 0 is at red, and the probability of 1 at green, despite the fact that it's all red. To see this,...

So what have you learned? In Bayes Rule, there will be more than just 2 underlying causes of cancer/non cancer. There might be 3, 4, or 5, any number. We can apply exactly the same math, but we have...

So here's my assignment for you. Go online and check old news articles and find me one that takes data that show a correlation and from the data suggests causation or differently it tells what...

And I get 0.0217, it is a really small thing. And the way I get there is what taking home times the probability of rain at home normalizing it using the same number of a year plus the calculation for...

And the answer is no. This is a case of what we call reverse causation. You can argue that the size of the fire causes the number of firefighters that is being destroyed, and that's because...

Now all of these are fictitious example, These are relatively high large numbers, but what's important to notice is the chances of dying in a hospital are 4 times as large as dying at home....

Suppose you observed a number of different fires and you graph the number of firefighters versus the size of the fire. And for the sake of the argument, let's assume we studied four fires with...