Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
Vladimir Yevseyev, the director of the Center of Socio-Political Studies
It seems Geneva-2 will be an intermediate stage because,
first of all, we can see a balance of forces on the battle field.
You see tough battles near Damascus and in the suburbs of Damascus
are sometimes are not controlled by the authorities.
And the situation has maintained for a long time.
We can see problems in Aleppo and other Syrian provinces.
Only when overbalance is reached on the battle field,
a conference on settlement of the Syrian crisis can be held successfully.
I hope such overbalance will take place by spring 2014,
and an opportunity for holding a new conference will be real, for instance, Geneva-3.
Look, the opposition doesnít want the talks, nor does Bashar Assad:
nobody is ready for forming a transitional government.
What does it mean? Bashar Assad should leave, and it is a demand of the armed opposition.
If overbalance is in favor of the Syrian national army,
the opposition will have no chance to set the demand, as it is actually ultimatum.
At the moment ultimatum is set by the armed opposition under balance of forces.
If it is defeated on the battle field, the government could agree with the opposition.
For example, they could demand from the armed opposition to dismiss all contractors,
as a preliminary condition for conducting the talks.
So, I think we should deal with the reality.
It is better to hold the conference with Iranís participation,
but nevertheless, it has to be held without Iran as well.
To hold with the opposition which will come to Geneva.
And are result of the meeting should be a plan of future steps,
settlement of humanitarian problems in Syria, problems of refugees,
i.e. problems which can be solved now.
It is too early to discuss what future Syria will look like.
I think only after overbalance in battle forces,
we can set a question on conducting early parliamentary elections.
This step is a necessary condition for effective presidential elections.
In all countries parliamentary elections are held ahead of presidential.
The elections which took place in May 2012, it seems nobody is satisfied with their results.
There should be new elections, but they should take place after stabilization of the situation in Syria.
I think by next spring or summer the situation will be more favorable for this,
and then we will be able to speak about a settlement of the Syrian crisis.