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bjbjLULU MARGARET WARNER: For more on today's developments, we turn to Priscilla Clapp,
a retired foreign service officer who headed the U.S. Embassy in Burma between 1999 and
2002. She's now an analyst and consultant to think tanks and foundations. And Tom Malinowski,
Washington director of Human Rights Watch and a former State Department and National
Security Council staffer in the Clinton administration. Welcome to you both. Priscilla Clapp, let
me begin with you. Why this turnaround on the part of the United States? I mean, the
U.S. has had Myanmar in the deep freeze now for years and years. PRISCILLA CLAPP, former
U.S. chief of mission in Myanmar: It's an attempt to respond to some very, very positive
developments in Myanmar that we have been calling for, for decades. They're finally
moving in the direction that we have been asking for, reconciliation, and particularly
bringing the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi... MARGARET WARNER: That's the opposition party. PRISCILLA
CLAPP: The opposition party -- into the political fold. They have changed their party registration
laws to make it possible now to remove the objections that the NLD had to the party registration
act. They can now participate in the elections that are coming up next month. They will be
part of the political process. And this is a major step in the direction of reconciliation
on the side of the opposition. MARGARET WARNER: Is that the way you see it, that this is to
recognize what are really significant steps. TOM MALINOWSKI, Human Rights Watch: I think
it is to encourage significant steps, to recognize what President Obama, I think rightly, termed
flickers of progress. The big, big shift in Burma has been that, after 20 years of basically
trying to eliminate Aung San Suu Kyi, even kill her, the government has decided that
it wants to bring her in, to some extent. Now, why are they doing that? They're doing
it because they want greater legitimacy with their own people, who have hated them for
all these years. They want greater legitimacy in the international community. And they know
the only way to do that is by bringing Aung San Suu Kyi in. The question is, is this for
real, is this a sincere effort to partner with her to build a new kind of Burma, or
are they trying to sort of co-opt her or use her in order to get what they want from the
international community? That has to be tested now. MARGARET WARNER: What is your answer
to Tom Malinowski's question, is this for real, these steps they have taken? PRISCILLA
CLAPP: I have the same question that he has: Is it for real? I believe that they have -- that
they are sincere in what they are doing. And I very much trust the judgment of Aung San
Suu Kyi. We not only need, but I would say my former colleagues in the U.S. government
place a lot of faith in her ability to judge whether it's real. And she's saying that she
believes it is real this time, particularly on the part of the president. There are many
others in this new government that I wouldn't trust an inch. But the president seems to
be a sincere strategic thinker and reformer. And I think that everybody inside and outside
the country wants to find ways to support what he's doing. MARGARET WARNER: What explains
that, Tom Malinowski? I mean, Thein Sein is a retired general. He was installed by the
military junta. He was part of the previous regime. Why is he even taking these limited
steps? TOM MALINOWSKI: Well, there is a lot going on here, and it is probably very complicated.
One factor is China. For a lot of time, critics of U.S. sanctions on Burma said, don't sanction
them because you will push them into the arms of the Chinese. Well, it turned out that pushing
them into arms of the Chinese may have been the thing that got them to come right back
and say, we don't want that. That's not comfortable for us. It's humiliating for us. There is
the legacy, I think, of the Saffron Revolution. We saw an image... MARGARET WARNER: That was
the 2007... TOM MALINOWSKI: The monks being shot. That was a terrible thing. The government
succeeded in putting down that monks' uprising, but killing monks in Burma in this very deeply
Buddhist society is a terrible thing to live down. The cyclone, the terrible cyclone, Nargis,
the following year, in which government neglect led to over 100,000 deaths, I think a lot
of people in the military, though they may have an authoritarian mind-set -- they do
-- were ashamed of those things. And so they want something different, and they know that
to get that something different, they need Aung San Suu Kyi on their side with the international
community. Again, the question is how far are they willing to go to meet her legitimate
demands? PRISCILLA CLAPP: I would add another reason. MARGARET WARNER: OK. Go ahead. PRISCILLA
CLAPP: These ex-generals who are in the government now have traveled a lot, in the region and
around the world. And they have seen how far behind their country is. They know that only
reform, particularly economic and political, is going to correct this situation. MARGARET
WARNER: Let me bring it back to China in the limited time we have left. How does China
figure into the calculations of the United States here? In other words, what are U.S.
interests? Is it human rights? Is it as a counterweight to China? Is it because Burma
has great resources? What is it? PRISCILLA CLAPP: No, it's -- first of all, it's human
rights. That really is the first -- the first item on our agenda. There's no question about
it. The question of China is ancillary. China is a big neighbor of Burma's and is always
going to be a major player there. We're minor. This is just -- we're beginning to correct
an imbalance simply by sending the secretary of state. But we have a long way to go. MARGARET
WARNER: How do you think China figures in U.S. calculations here? TOM MALINOWSKI: I
think it's a huge factor for the Burmese and I think it is a minor factor for the United
States. Burma is a small pond on that chessboard. What has mattered, I think, to Americans,
successive administrations, from Clinton to Bush to now President Obama, is the inspirational
quality of Aung San Suu Kyi and of this amazing, nonviolent, pure democracy movement standing
up against a brutal military. That's fascinated us for a long time. MARGARET WARNER: And so
what would be a mark of success for the secretary's trip? In other words, is she just going there
to pat them on the back, or is she going there to press and to do some sort of a carrot-and-stick
offer here for more? PRISCILLA CLAPP: I think she will do both. I think she will encourage
them, say some encouraging words, but I think she will also press them. MARGARET WARNER:
To do what? PRISCILLA CLAPP: That's really the basis of our policy right now, principled
engagement and pressure on the other side. TOM MALINOWSKI: The visit won't be a success
if all they do is have a dialogue. We have had that with them. They have to release all
the political prisoners. They promised to do it. We thought they were going to do it
this week, actually, and they didn't. So... MARGARET WARNER: How many... TOM MALINOWSKI:
About 1,600 left. And one reason I'm glad that the secretary is going is because I know
she doesn't want an unsuccessful visit. And now the U.S. government, I think, is going
to spend every day between now and her touchdown in Burma to make sure that there are real
deliverables, including the release of political prisoners. PRISCILLA CLAPP: Secretarial visits
have the advantage of organizing the U.S. government. (LAUGHTER) MARGARET WARNER: Always
a good thing. Priscilla Clapp, Tom Malinowski, thank you both. TOM MALINOWSKI: Thank you.
PRISCILLA CLAPP: Thank you. urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags country-region urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags
City urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags State urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags
place MARGARET WARNER: For more on today's developments, we turn to Priscilla Clapp,
a retired foreign service officer who headed the U Normal Microsoft Office Word MARGARET
WARNER: For more on today's developments, we turn to Priscilla Clapp, a retired foreign
service officer who headed the U Title Microsoft Office Word Document MSWordDoc Word.Document.8